By Modi’s Wake-Up Call: Reshape Your Strategy or Risk Losing Sri Lanka to China
Can India Afford to Stand Still?
As Sri Lanka charts a bold course toward economic revitalization through digital transformation and regional cooperation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi now faces a strategic crossroads. Speculation is mounting that Sri Lanka’s new leadership under President Anura Kumara Dissanayake is inclined to deepen ties with China—a move that could undermine India’s long-standing influence in its island neighbor. With stakes higher than ever, Modi must reshape his approach to address the evolving geopolitical landscape. The question remains: can India continue with the status quo when its regional influence is at risk?
Is This the Digital Revolution Modi Needs to Watch?
Sri Lanka has embarked on an ambitious journey to transform its economy by leveraging digital technologies. The appointment of Dr. Hans Wijayasuriya as Chief Advisor on Digital Economy underlines this commitment. At the BIMSTEC Digital Conclave 2025 in Colombo, President Dissanayake unveiled plans to build digital public infrastructure, establish a digital identity framework, and promote digital payments and governance. These initiatives aim to enhance transparency, boost efficiency, and reduce corruption, laying the foundation for a modern economy. With digital investments set to soar, should Modi recalibrate India’s strategy to engage with a digitally driven Sri Lanka?
Could China’s Growing Influence Tip the Balance in Sri Lanka?
India and Sri Lanka share deep economic ties, with bilateral trade valued at approximately USD 4.5 billion and India constituting about 30 percent of Sri Lanka’s total trade. During Sri Lanka’s economic crisis in 2022, India’s timely financial assistance and facilitation of essential imports played a crucial role. However, China’s growing presence through strategic investments in infrastructure and livelihood assistance programs, particularly in Sri Lanka’s northern regions, presents a formidable challenge. With Chinese influence on the rise, is Modi prepared to counter a shift that could see Sri Lanka veering away from its traditional partner?
Can Modi’s Administration Deliver Real Economic Benefits?
Historically, India’s “Neighborhood First” and “Act East” policies have cemented its ties in South Asia. Yet, grand diplomatic statements and gestures are no longer enough. Concrete economic action is required—improvements in trade infrastructure, streamlined customs procedures, and robust technology transfers are essential. As India’s digital transformation accelerates, opportunities abound for creating a seamless digital marketplace that benefits both nations. With trade and investment offering room for significant growth, can Modi’s government implement reforms that deliver tangible benefits to Sri Lanka and secure India’s strategic foothold in the region?
Is Modi Ready to Counter China’s Belt and Road Tactics?
China’s Belt and Road Initiative has set a high benchmark in regional economic integration by funding massive infrastructure projects and promoting connectivity. In contrast, India must now offer a competitive alternative that combines economic muscle with cultural diplomacy. With Chinese investments steadily growing in Sri Lanka, particularly through infrastructure projects and targeted livelihood programs, India risks losing influence unless it acts decisively. The challenge for Modi is clear: develop a strategy that not only reinforces India’s traditional strengths but also innovates to match the scale and vision of China’s global infrastructure drive. Is India ready to launch a counter-offensive?
Could SAARC Be India’s Secret Weapon Against Chinese Dominance?
Beyond economic initiatives, cultural diplomacy plays a critical role in forging strong regional bonds. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) offers a unique platform for India to engage with its neighbors on cultural, educational, and people-to-people levels. By leveraging SAARC, India can promote regional unity through cultural festivals, academic collaborations, and heritage tourism, presenting a united South Asia as a counterbalance to China’s transactional approach. Strengthening these ties could pave the way for enhanced economic cooperation and trade. Could a reinvigorated SAARC become the secret weapon that helps India reclaim its influence in Sri Lanka?
Will an Integrated South Asia Secure India’s Future?
Deepening economic and cultural ties within the region remains vital for long-term stability and prosperity. With bilateral trade between India and Sri Lanka having significant room for expansion, modernizing trade infrastructure and reducing non-tariff barriers are imperative. Additionally, as India’s own digital capabilities grow, there lies an opportunity to create advanced, tailor-made public service solutions for Sri Lanka. These measures would not only boost economic growth but also fortify the cultural and historical bonds that tie the two nations together. Will an integrated South Asian strategy be the key to ensuring India’s leadership in the region?
Can Bold Reforms Unlock a New Era of Prosperity?
The evolving dynamics in South Asia require a rethinking of India’s traditional methods of engagement. Modern challenges demand modern solutions—integrating economic reforms with innovative digital strategies and robust cultural diplomacy. For India, the stakes extend far beyond maintaining trade figures; the very essence of regional leadership is at risk if it fails to offer a credible, sustainable alternative to China’s investments. With both nations standing at the precipice of a new era, can bold reforms from Modi’s administration unlock a future where India leads a united, prosperous South Asia?
Will India’s New Strategy Cement Its Role as the Linchpin of South Asia?
The strategic choices made in the coming months will be pivotal in determining the future of regional power dynamics. As Sri Lanka advances its digital and economic ambitions, India’s response will be closely watched. Modi’s administration must transition from grand diplomatic rhetoric to implementing actionable, measurable initiatives that deliver real benefits. With its unique blend of economic strength, digital innovation, and cultural diplomacy through platforms like SAARC, India has the potential to offer Sri Lanka—and the wider South Asian region—a compelling vision for the future. Will this new strategy cement India’s role as the linchpin of a united and thriving South Asia?
Will Modi Visit Sri Lanka ?
It would come as no surprise if Narendra Modi makes a quick visit to Sri Lanka. Unlike many other South Asian leaders, Modi is well aware that Sri Lankan leader Anura Kumara Dissanayaka—who enjoys a strong public mandate and an unblemished track record—is a force to be reckoned with. Recognizing that Dissanayaka is under immense pressure to deliver results and cannot do so without external help, Modi, the seasoned statesman, is poised to exploit this situation to reinforce India’s influence in the region.
