By
Founded in 2016 by Basil Rajapaksha , the SLPP became combat-ready two years later; it trounced the UNP and the SLFP in the 2018 local government elections and went on to win a presidential poll and a general election with huge majorities in 2019 and 2020, respectively. It obtained 145 seats in the parliament and mustered a two-thirds majority with the help of crossovers from the SJB. Its fall came sooner than expected. The irate public rose against the SLPP government, which mismanaged the economy and bankrupted the country, and the members of the Rajapaksa family had to give up government positions; President Gotabaya Rajapaksa had to flee the country and send in his resignation. This is the price a government has to pay for being intoxicated with power.
Today, the SLPP is unable to decide whether to contest the upcoming presidential election or skip it and back a candidate fielded by some other political party. However, it would be a mistake to undermine the SLPP as a ship without a radar. The SLPP knows that it has a bloc vote that is willing to support its nationalistic stance and that would be enough to hold on to the opposition until times are better.
Presidential Candidate
On the surface, it seems that the SLPP is unable to decide whether to contest the upcoming presidential election or skip it and back a candidate fielded by some other political party. However, the actual situation is somewhat different.
The calculation of the SLPP is that it could wield power within a hung parliament. Leader of the Opposition will not be a bad place for the young Namal Rajapaksa. The SLPP has now cornered Ranil Wickremesinghe by challenging him to get a sufficient number of SJB crossovers, but it seems that so far he has failed to deliver. Now it will not be difficult for the SLPP to name its own candidate.
The biggest challenge for the SLPP is to remain relevant in national politics and this could be done by putting forward their own candidate. The SLPP knows that getting the Presidency on its own is not a possibility and if it’s not possible to be in the power play with Ranil Wickremesinghe, the next best option is to be the leading voice of the opposition. Crossovers from the SLPP will not be a big issue as irrespective of movements, the party could hold on the opposition benches in parliament with the help of its nationalistic chants. The SLPP will have to wait for others to become unpopular for the public resentment to cease. However, until then, the opposition camp would be a safe haven.
Victim Card
The SLPP will play the victim card which has appeal to voters who subscribe to nationalistic sentiments. Poor Gotabaya Rajapaksa (GR) portrays himself as a victim of an external conspiracy. The conspiracy theory was echoed by SLPP MP and former minister Wimal Weerawansa who authored a book, ‘Nine: The Untold Story’, based on the alleged conspiracy to remove President GR from office.
The victim card will be the key campaign slogan of the SLPP platform. The Rajapaksas are well aware that safeguarding the nation from conspiracy may not be a palatable slogan to all but it would have sufficient appeal to keep them as a relevant voice within the Sri Lankan political arena. That would be more than enough for the Rajapaksas for the moment. At the end of the day, the SLPP is not only in a comfortable position to name its own candidate but also has a strategy to remain a relevant force within Sri Lankan politics.
