By JVP Governance Could Mirror Latin American Militant Left, Says Ranga Jayasuriya
In his latest column, political analyst Ranga Jayasuriya warns of dire consequences should the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and its National People’s Power (NPP) leader, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, assume power in Sri Lanka. While Dissanayake enjoys a surge in social media popularity, Jayasuriya argues that this hype does not reflect actual voter support, casting doubt on the credibility of opinion polls and social media engagement.
Jayasuriya claims that despite Dissanayake’s rise in opinion polls and crowd sizes, these metrics are often manipulated or influenced by small sample sizes. He estimates that, under the best-case scenario, Dissanayake and the JVP may only secure 20% of the popular vote, far short of the presidency. The JVP’s political inexperience, aside from a brief collaboration with former President Chandrika Kumaratunga, is cited as a significant risk for the country.
In his comparison of global leftist movements, Jayasuriya argues that the JVP is more closely aligned with Latin America’s militant left-wing governments, like those in Nicaragua and Venezuela, than with Europe’s social democracies. He warns that while the JVP’s welfare policies may sound appealing, they are economically unfeasible within Sri Lanka’s limited financial framework, citing the country’s 9.8% tax revenue to GDP ratio in 2023.
The columnist is particularly concerned about the JVP’s potential reliance on “hybrid sources of power,” combining populist legitimacy with force, to maintain control. Drawing parallels to militant left-wing governments in Latin America, Jayasuriya warns that the JVP’s past, rooted in armed insurgencies, could lead to authoritarian rule if they lose popular support.
Jayasuriya predicts that a JVP government would face rapid economic decline, similar to the crises under previous administrations. He forecasts that an initial positive atmosphere may follow their election, but within two years, the country could face economic collapse. The JVP’s promises of freebies and salary hikes would soon exhaust available resources, leading to what he calls “Gotabaya Part 2,” referencing the economic instability under former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
The columnist concludes with a stark warning: If the JVP clings to power, as has been the case with other militant leftist regimes, Sri Lanka could experience even worse economic and political turmoil than in recent history. Jayasuriya advises voters to be cautious, suggesting that the JVP’s rule could resemble the authoritarian, chaotic governments of Latin America more than any successful leftist democracy.
