By Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD), leader of Sri Lanka’s leftist National People’s Power (NPP), has emerged as a frontrunner in recent polls, potentially shaking up the country’s political landscape.The Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) was carried out by the Institute for Health Policy (IHP) in December 2023
Key findings:
Presidential poll: Dissanayake enjoys backing from 50% of likely voters, compared to 33% for opposition leader Sajith Premadasa and a mere 9% for President Ranil Wickremesinghe. Notably, a generic candidate for the ruling SLPP follows closely with 8%.
General election poll: NPP leads with 39% voter support, followed by Premadasa’s SJB at 27%. Traditional powerhouses UNP and SLPP lag behind with 6% and 10%, respectively.
Trends: Dissanayake’s presidential support has surged 14 points since mid-2023, while Premadasa’s has gained 3 points since September. Conversely, Wickremesinghe has faced a decline in popularity over the same period.
Analysis:
Dissanayake’s rise reflects growing discontent with the established parties’ handling of Sri Lanka’s economic crisis and political turmoil. His leftist platform, advocating for social justice and economic reforms, seems to resonate with voters seeking alternatives.
However, the race remains wide open. Premadasa’s steady climb and the potential consolidation of the SLPP vote could pose challenges for Dissanayake. Additionally, the December dip in his support suggests he may not be immune to fluctuations.
Overall, Sri Lanka’s political landscape is in flux, with Dissanayake’s emergence injecting a dose of uncertainty into the upcoming elections. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether he can capitalize on his current momentum and secure victory.
